Archive for the ‘housing statistics’ Category
The latest news from the CoreLogic, a national provider of real estate statistics, is that the home price index has increased 3.8% on a national level – the largest increase since 2006. The figures include distressed properties. What does this mean?
A home price increase is good for the housing industry, as it means that housing is on the road to recovery. This is great news for the economy. What will be interesting to see is how the news affects home sellers. Either we will begin to see more inventory on the market, which is desperately needed to meet demand, or we will continue to see low inventory as sellers wait for the market to climb.
Unfortunately there will not be any drastic increases in price – it will be gradual. Hopefully those sellers who are sitting on the proverbial fence waiting to sell will realize this shortly, and then list their homes anyway. Lack of inventory is one of our biggest challenges right now in real estate, but undoubtedly is one of the reasons for the price increase.
The future index measures by CoreLogic indicate that sales will rise, moving forward, 4.6% on a year to year basis from August of 2011, and at least 0.6% on a month over month basis from July of 2012. These predictions are derived from measuring multiple listing service (MLS) data that measure price changes in prior months.
The 5 states with the highest levels of appreciation, including distressed properties, were Arizona, Idaho, Utah, South Dakota and Colorado.
In North San Diego county we have seen a slight price decrease (for attached and detached homes) in median price, from $403,500 to $395,000, for the month of July, compared to July of last year. San Diego county a as whole enjoyed a price increase of 1.28% from June to July of 2012, with a year to year increase of 5.33% from July of 2011.
As always, it is imperative to focus on your specific neighborhood if you are interested in specific sales data, as information varies depending on where you are located. The good news is that most areas across the nation are experiencing price increases, which is a great sign for the housing market and the economy.
If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me how the housing market is doing, I would be a very happy lady. Right now there are a lot of stories and speculation out there as to the status of the housing market. There is definitely a lot of positive news, and that seems to be the majority. But nevertheless, when I report on it I still get comments from people claiming that their area is still hard hit, rife with foreclosures, etc. Can we answer the question, “how is the market?” in general terms?
The answer is “not really.” Although most areas of the country are in a better place than they were say, two years ago, the answer to the housing market status question is still area-specific. Some areas – like many parts of California and Arizona (due in part to inventory shortages) and Idaho – are experiencing positive signs, like increased sales, multiple offer situations, lower foreclosure numbers, and construction booms. Yet other areas, such as New Jersey, have thousands of empty homes that have not hit the market yet (New Jersey has one of the highest “shadow inventory” rates in the country – the number of homes owned by lenders but not yet active on the resale market).
So in some areas of the country we are seeing housing improvements on different levels, while in other areas we are not seeing such signs. Therefore, looking at housing from a national perspective really does not provide an adequate picture as to what is going on in your area. As I always say, it is more important to focus on your specific area and ignore the media reports on housing (unless they are hyper-local reports). So let’s take a look at what’s going on locally.
The California housing market improved 8.5% in sales in June from the same time last year. Prices also increased 8.1% from the same time last year, according to the California Association of Realtors (CAR). Low inventory rates in many areas, as well as low interest rates and ready buyers, combined to jack up the competition and bring more offers and more closed escrows.
Here in San Diego county, the median price for all North County homes – attached and detached – increased $13,000 from May to June, 2012. Wow! That is a big increase in one month. Among detached homes, North County experienced the highest median price recorded for single family detached homes since 2010 (a 4.68% increase in price from May to June of this year). Attached homes in North County also increased – 1.97% from May to June of this year. [Data complied by NSDCAR via HomeDex]
The number of sold homes in North County increased for the 5th month in a row, while the number of single family detached home listings decreased from May to June by 6.15%, with a fall of over 35% from June 2011. Normally the busiest selling time of the year, this Spring and Summer have definitely been different in the local housing market. The lack of inventory and the demand for such continues to strengthen the local market in terms of price and sales.
Outside of North County (the rest of San Diego county), detached home prices increased 0.87% from May to June, and attached home prices remained steady from May to June (at $210,000).
Locally, we are definitely seeing a housing market rebound. For those who have to purchase it can be trying, due to the low inventory and fierce competition, including investor buyers who often can present cash offers. What we need locally is more inventory. Although prices are down from the heyday of the market, it still can be a great time for sellers who need to sell or have equity in their homes.
When focusing on the housing market and whether it is truly “recovering,” my advice is to ignore the national media and look at housing reports in your area, or the area in which you would like to purchase. If you would like a copy of the HomeDex report, please send an email to me at Rachel@LaMarRealEstate.org, and I will be happy to send it to you. I am also happy to provide a thorough market analysis of any San Diego neighborhood.
Photos courtesy of Dreamstime
Home prices are rising and have been doing so for the last three months. According to Standard and Poor’s newest Case-Shiller index report, prices have actually showed a decline, but that fact has been disputed by other reports. In North San Diego, I agree that prices seem to be rising and market times, not including short sales, are decreasing.
The discrepancy between the Case-Shiller report and other reports that have studied markets across the country is that the other reports focus on when contracts are signed – it uses the prices agreed upon at that time, even though it could be months until the properties close escrow. Case-Shiller uses the prices reflected at the close of escrow, so there is quite a bit of lag time, up to several months, which skews the results.
Market Trends: The general consensus is that if you focus on what is trending, rather than waiting until close of escrow down the road, you get a clearer picture of price increase. Of course, there is the possibility that some of these sales may not close escrow, or may not appraise at the agreed price, but there is still a valid argument that focusing on what people are WILLING to pay and do get into contract for is a more accurate measure of hyper-local market analyses.
North San Diego: From a personal standpoint, I agree that prices seem to be increasing in the North San Diego market. We are seeing a lot of multiple offer situations, especially in the lower price ranges (under $400,000) across the county. Also apparent is that that the days on market time seems to be decreasing. In Carlsbad alone the average market time (for all four zip codes combined) for detached homes is 76 days, but if you scroll through all the pending listings you will notice many that sold in under a week. For attached homes in all four Carlsbad zip codes the average market time is 84 days, but again, you will notice a handful of properties that went into pending status quickly.
Sales Time Trends and Short Sales: Another trend I am seeing is that short sales contracts are being presented and accepted faster, especially in the under-$400,000 price range, with both attached and detached homes. These sales go into contingent status (meaning an offer has been signed and accepted by the seller pending approval by the short sale lender(s)) much quicker these days, but the market times are longer because the parties await short sale lender approval. The wait time, which can take months, throws off the market time numbers and makes them longer, so that has to be considered when looking at the sale times.
All in all the news is positive that the market here in San Diego is improving,which is great news for homeowners and buyers alike. According to Altos Research, the statistics indicate that the tables have turned slightly in the condo market, making it a seller’s market for the first time in a long time; the detached home market is still a buyer’s market. Hopefully the road ahead will continue to bring us closer to a more “normal” market.
Please feel free to contact me if you would like any detailed market reports and statistics sent to you, and I will be happy to do so. Send your request to Rachel@LaMarRealEstate.org.
The distressed property market continues to be a big part of our real estate market, and there is a lot going on as of late. Here are some of the highlights:
First time homebuyers getting tired of short sales: A survey conducted by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance revealed that first time buyers have had enough with short sales. This segment of buyers purchased around 40% of short sales in August, compared to 54% of all short sales purchased in November of 2009. Some of the reasons sited for this drop in short sale purchases are frustration with timelines to get the home through escrow, paperwork glitches and appraisal issues, and overall dissatisfaction with short sale lenders. Short sales are still seen as good bargains by many buyers, as they typically sell for 27% less than similar traditional sale homes, making them a great deal for many first time and repeat home buyers who do not have to move immediately.
Florida may change to a non-judicial foreclosure state. The state of Florida, one with a large number of foreclosures, is heeding the cry of many homeowners and buyers by contemplating switching to a non-judicial foreclosure state. Currently a judicial foreclosure state – which means that all foreclosures must go through the court system to be finalized (and there is a huge backlog) – Florida’s foreclosures take longer than those in non-judicial states, up to three times as long by some estimates. Some lawmakers are afraid that these lags will cause lenders not to lend in the state, and that the current system stagnates the market and leads to neighborhood blight. The court system, as we know, can be very slow, so I think this is a good idea, although some lawmakers are opposed to a change with the status quo.
State attorneys general still not close to agreement in robo-signing scandal: Yes, it pains me to report that once again, there is no final decision in the robo-signing scandal. Lenders and attorneys general cannot seem to come up with a punishment for the lenders that makes all happy. Really? Whose money is being used for these attorneys general to meet ad nauseum and figure this out? I frankly think it ridiculous. Some AGs are saying that the banks should not be held liable for things that have not been investigated yet (what?), and that the liability should be placed on Wall Street and not so much on the lenders. Come on people – accept the blame and move on. The committee has stated that it the lenders will not be released from all civil liability…the saga continues.
Fixing the foreclosure mess may take more than a year. The latest statistics on fixing the foreclosure nightmare are that it may take more than a year, according to one story in HousingWire.com. Not a big surprise to many folks, and much of the long fix is due to the robo-signing fiasco. Over 4.5 million files must be examined for signs of improper foreclosure procedures, and new plans put in place to prevent such incidences from occurring in the future.
Some interesting numbers: 31% of all home purchases in California in August were short sales. In San Diego county alone, there are currently over 2500 short sales on the market today, with 1098 pending and over 3000 awaiting lender approval (contingent status). In the last six months in the county there have been 3412 short sales that closed escrow, with an average market time of 149 days. The point is that short sales are still very much a part of our current market, and I don’t think that will change any time soon.
In trying times you can surely bet that there will be those who will come up with ideas – some good, some bad. There is one mortgage servicer that has been following a plan for the last year, and it has proven successful in helping underwater homeowners (those who owe more to their mortgagors than the current market value of their homes). The program has been so successful it is going to be applied to many more loans the servicer is acquiring.
Ocwen Financial, a mortgage company that services 460,000 loans throughout the country, just completed a one year study of their new program, achieving an unbelievable 2.6% redefault rate (compared to nationwide 40-50% redefault rates for federal programs). Here is how it works: the mortgage servicer agrees to reduce your loan balance to the point that your debt is 5% below current appraisal value (giving you equity in your home). They then modify your mortgage so your new monthly payments are based on your reduced principal balance. Over the next three years, in annual increments, they write off the amounts of the original debt that they reduced (so you are truly paying a mortgage based on current value, with equity, and there is no tacking on the old balance to the end of your loan).
There is a catch: the homeowner has to agree to keep loan payments current, and has to share 25% of any future gain realized if the home is resold. Sounds like a good plan, right? Considering that there are an estimated 11 million homeowners who are underwater on their mortgages, with an expectation of 2 million of those who will face foreclosure (according to an article posted today by Ken Harney), this could be a program that might prevent more foreclosures if adopted by other lenders.
I think this idea is good enough to share, and I hope that other lenders will follow suit and initiate similar programs. Some big lenders, like Wells Fargo and Bank of America, do offer principal reduction programs, but they do not utilize the “shared appreciation feature” inherent in Ocwen’s plan. I believe it is a brilliant possible solution for many people, so if your loan is not serviced by Ocwen please discuss this with your lender. Thank you to Ken Harney for bringing this story to light.