Archive for the ‘housing reports’ Category
Thursday, February 21st, 2013
Sellers rejoice: it is finally a sellers’ market in many areas. For those homeowners who need or want to sell, this news has been a long time coming, after the last few years of the housing market collapse and bad news. There are some very positive market conditions that accompany this changeover:
Home price increases: If you follow the housing market in your area you may have noticed that prices are increasing in most areas (of course, you should check with your local real estate professional, as every area is different). The median national home price has increased 12.3% in San Diego county from this time last year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The great news is that this will move many homeowners from being underwater, to being able to finally sell and move on. Many of these people were “stuck” in their homes because they owed more than their homes were worth. Zillow reported that over 2 million homeowners came out of the negative equity doldrums on their homes in 2012, and that is expected to continue this year. Over the next year we will see many of these underwater homeowners get out of negative equity situations, which will then increase the inventory levels and bring the market back into “normal,” aka healthy, status.
Increase in buyer demand: Also, according to NAR, buyer traffic has increased 40% from a year ago. There are many buyers out there ready to buy, and less inventory for them to see. This keeps prices climbing and leads to…
Multiple offers: Many listings are obtaining multiple offers, and many are also selling not only over comparable market value, but over appraised value. Lots of buyers are willing to pay cash out of pocket for homes where their appraisal has come in too low (they pay the difference between the appraisal and the sales price), thus driving neighborhood comparables upwards.
Market times have decreased: Due to all the above factors, market times have decreased and homes are selling more quickly. In San Diego county, average market times decreased for almost every city. The average days on market in North San Diego for detached homes was 36, down from 48 days in December 2012. Market time for attached homes similarly fell in the majority of San Diego county cities, some as much as 84%, with the median attached home market time all across the county at 48. (Source: HomeDex)
The market is improving and all signs are pointing toward a healthy 2013 for the real estate market. The biggest plus is that we will eliminate the negative equity situation for many homeowners, creating more inventory for buyers, and allowing many current homeowners to sell and purchase properties that are more cost-efficient for them. All this, of course, will create higher home values, which benefit neighborhoods.
All in all, this is a great time to be in the position to sell, so get your home in tip-top shape and enjoy the turn of the market. If you are thinking of selling your home, it is important to consult with an experienced neighborhood real estate agent.
Tuesday, December 4th, 2012
Wednesday, September 5th, 2012
The latest news from the CoreLogic, a national provider of real estate statistics, is that the home price index has increased 3.8% on a national level – the largest increase since 2006. The figures include distressed properties. What does this mean?
A home price increase is good for the housing industry, as it means that housing is on the road to recovery. This is great news for the economy. What will be interesting to see is how the news affects home sellers. Either we will begin to see more inventory on the market, which is desperately needed to meet demand, or we will continue to see low inventory as sellers wait for the market to climb.
Unfortunately there will not be any drastic increases in price – it will be gradual. Hopefully those sellers who are sitting on the proverbial fence waiting to sell will realize this shortly, and then list their homes anyway. Lack of inventory is one of our biggest challenges right now in real estate, but undoubtedly is one of the reasons for the price increase.
The future index measures by CoreLogic indicate that sales will rise, moving forward, 4.6% on a year to year basis from August of 2011, and at least 0.6% on a month over month basis from July of 2012. These predictions are derived from measuring multiple listing service (MLS) data that measure price changes in prior months.
The 5 states with the highest levels of appreciation, including distressed properties, were Arizona, Idaho, Utah, South Dakota and Colorado.
In North San Diego county we have seen a slight price decrease (for attached and detached homes) in median price, from $403,500 to $395,000, for the month of July, compared to July of last year. San Diego county a as whole enjoyed a price increase of 1.28% from June to July of 2012, with a year to year increase of 5.33% from July of 2011.
As always, it is imperative to focus on your specific neighborhood if you are interested in specific sales data, as information varies depending on where you are located. The good news is that most areas across the nation are experiencing price increases, which is a great sign for the housing market and the economy.
Sunday, July 22nd, 2012
If I had a dollar for every time someone asked me how the housing market is doing, I would be a very happy lady. Right now there are a lot of stories and speculation out there as to the status of the housing market. There is definitely a lot of positive news, and that seems to be the majority. But nevertheless, when I report on it I still get comments from people claiming that their area is still hard hit, rife with foreclosures, etc. Can we answer the question, “how is the market?” in general terms?
The answer is “not really.” Although most areas of the country are in a better place than they were say, two years ago, the answer to the housing market status question is still area-specific. Some areas – like many parts of California and Arizona (due in part to inventory shortages) and Idaho – are experiencing positive signs, like increased sales, multiple offer situations, lower foreclosure numbers, and construction booms. Yet other areas, such as New Jersey, have thousands of empty homes that have not hit the market yet (New Jersey has one of the highest “shadow inventory” rates in the country – the number of homes owned by lenders but not yet active on the resale market).
So in some areas of the country we are seeing housing improvements on different levels, while in other areas we are not seeing such signs. Therefore, looking at housing from a national perspective really does not provide an adequate picture as to what is going on in your area. As I always say, it is more important to focus on your specific area and ignore the media reports on housing (unless they are hyper-local reports). So let’s take a look at what’s going on locally.
The California housing market improved 8.5% in sales in June from the same time last year. Prices also increased 8.1% from the same time last year, according to the California Association of Realtors (CAR). Low inventory rates in many areas, as well as low interest rates and ready buyers, combined to jack up the competition and bring more offers and more closed escrows.
Here in San Diego county, the median price for all North County homes – attached and detached – increased $13,000 from May to June, 2012. Wow! That is a big increase in one month. Among detached homes, North County experienced the highest median price recorded for single family detached homes since 2010 (a 4.68% increase in price from May to June of this year). Attached homes in North County also increased – 1.97% from May to June of this year. [Data complied by NSDCAR via HomeDex]
The number of sold homes in North County increased for the 5th month in a row, while the number of single family detached home listings decreased from May to June by 6.15%, with a fall of over 35% from June 2011. Normally the busiest selling time of the year, this Spring and Summer have definitely been different in the local housing market. The lack of inventory and the demand for such continues to strengthen the local market in terms of price and sales.
Outside of North County (the rest of San Diego county), detached home prices increased 0.87% from May to June, and attached home prices remained steady from May to June (at $210,000).
Locally, we are definitely seeing a housing market rebound. For those who have to purchase it can be trying, due to the low inventory and fierce competition, including investor buyers who often can present cash offers. What we need locally is more inventory. Although prices are down from the heyday of the market, it still can be a great time for sellers who need to sell or have equity in their homes.
When focusing on the housing market and whether it is truly “recovering,” my advice is to ignore the national media and look at housing reports in your area, or the area in which you would like to purchase. If you would like a copy of the HomeDex report, please send an email to me at Rachel@LaMarRealEstate.org, and I will be happy to send it to you. I am also happy to provide a thorough market analysis of any San Diego neighborhood.
Photos courtesy of Dreamstime
Friday, July 6th, 2012
Housing Affordability is Up: The National Association of Realtors has reported that housing affordability is at it’s highest level since the 1970s, when such record-keeping started. The Housing Affordability Index measures the relationship between median home price, median family income, and average mortgage interest rates. As the index climbs higher, household purchasing power grows. An index of 100 is the place at which a household with median income is able to qualify for a purchase of a median-priced home; the index in January scored 206. Great news for buyers.
Vacation and Investor Purchases Grow: Rising to the highest level since 2005, vacation home and investor purchases are heating up the market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports that investment purchases rose over 64% last year from 2010 levels. Vacation home purchases rose 7% from 2010. I have definitely felt this to be true, as the majority of my sales in 2011 and again this year have been to investors and those purchasing second/third homes – it’s a great time to negotiate for these buyers.
Fixed Mortgage Rates Keep Falling: Fixed rates have continued to drop, according to a Freddie Mac survey, with a fall again this week for 30 year fixed rates, to 3.62% (compared to 4.60% this time last year). Similarly, 15 year fixed rates and 1 year ARMs also dropped. For more details click here.
California Homeowner Bill of Rights Closer to Approval: The California Homeowner Bill of Rights -which actually encompass two bills – passed by the State Assembly and Senate on Monday, and now go to the Governor for final approval.
The bills will address two main issues: (1) protection from foreclosure of homes while homeowners are working with their lenders on modifications (allowing them to stay in their homes), and (2) establishing a single point of contact with lenders for homeowners in their communications (so they are not passed around to numerous people while trying to work out their modifications – an act that would have a big impact on getting these modifications approved).
The bills will also prevent robo-signing by imposing fines on the lenders for filing any unverified documents, and will allow homeowners to sue before a foreclosure. Lenders of course have been fighting these laws and are against passage. The laws are expected to be passed and would take effect January 1.
California Officials to Use Eminent Domain to Help Restructure Underwater Mortgages: Eminent domain, the process by which the state can take your property for public use, is being considered in a new light in an attempt to help underwater borrowers. The plan would allow seizure of underwater mortgages at a low price, based on fair market value, and would then refinance them (to the homeowner) at a slightly higher amount. The venture capital firm that is financing the seizures would make a profit on the new mortgages, and homeowners would be allowed to participate if they were current on their mortgages. Homeowners would stay in their homes and have new mortgages based on current market values. It will be interesting to follow the path of this clever but controversial plan.
Photo courtesy of Dreamstime
Thursday, March 29th, 2012
Home prices are rising and have been doing so for the last three months. According to Standard and Poor’s newest Case-Shiller index report, prices have actually showed a decline, but that fact has been disputed by other reports. In North San Diego, I agree that prices seem to be rising and market times, not including short sales, are decreasing.
The discrepancy between the Case-Shiller report and other reports that have studied markets across the country is that the other reports focus on when contracts are signed – it uses the prices agreed upon at that time, even though it could be months until the properties close escrow. Case-Shiller uses the prices reflected at the close of escrow, so there is quite a bit of lag time, up to several months, which skews the results.
Market Trends: The general consensus is that if you focus on what is trending, rather than waiting until close of escrow down the road, you get a clearer picture of price increase. Of course, there is the possibility that some of these sales may not close escrow, or may not appraise at the agreed price, but there is still a valid argument that focusing on what people are WILLING to pay and do get into contract for is a more accurate measure of hyper-local market analyses.
North San Diego: From a personal standpoint, I agree that prices seem to be increasing in the North San Diego market. We are seeing a lot of multiple offer situations, especially in the lower price ranges (under $400,000) across the county. Also apparent is that that the days on market time seems to be decreasing. In Carlsbad alone the average market time (for all four zip codes combined) for detached homes is 76 days, but if you scroll through all the pending listings you will notice many that sold in under a week. For attached homes in all four Carlsbad zip codes the average market time is 84 days, but again, you will notice a handful of properties that went into pending status quickly.
Sales Time Trends and Short Sales: Another trend I am seeing is that short sales contracts are being presented and accepted faster, especially in the under-$400,000 price range, with both attached and detached homes. These sales go into contingent status (meaning an offer has been signed and accepted by the seller pending approval by the short sale lender(s)) much quicker these days, but the market times are longer because the parties await short sale lender approval. The wait time, which can take months, throws off the market time numbers and makes them longer, so that has to be considered when looking at the sale times.
All in all the news is positive that the market here in San Diego is improving,which is great news for homeowners and buyers alike. According to Altos Research, the statistics indicate that the tables have turned slightly in the condo market, making it a seller’s market for the first time in a long time; the detached home market is still a buyer’s market. Hopefully the road ahead will continue to bring us closer to a more “normal” market.
Please feel free to contact me if you would like any detailed market reports and statistics sent to you, and I will be happy to do so. Send your request to Rachel@LaMarRealEstate.org.
Wednesday, March 21st, 2012
Thank you to Roxanne Kelemen, with Advantage Title for the above information!
Friday, December 2nd, 2011
Happy December everyone! I can’t believe the year is almost at an end (we won’t mention that I am completely unprepared for the holidays either). Here is what has been happening in the real estate market this week.
Foreclosure Moratorium for the Holidays. Some lenders are finding kindness in their heart to put in place foreclosure moratoria over the holidays, like they have done in the last few years. Fannie and Freddie have already announced a temporary moratorium on all foreclosures of single family homes and 2-4 unit properties for the holiday period, and all evictions will be delayed until after the New Year. California groups like Occupy L.A. and Occupy Santa Cruz are also trying to get lenders in their respective counties to place moratoria on foreclosures for the holidays. If you are facing foreclosure you can call your lender to see if they have instituted such a policy.
Fewer American Homowners are Underwater. A new study just published by CoreLogic concludes that the number of Americans whose homes are “underwater” (they owe more on their mortgage(s) than the current value of their homes) has decreased to 1 in 5. It used to be 1 in 4, so this sounds like good news, although there will be more foreclosures to come due to the large amount of negative equity in the housing market.
Reverse mortgages to have new requirements, may make it harder to qualify. Getting a reverse mortgage may soon be more difficult. Reverse loan originators will soon begin looking at the financial status of applicants, to see if they are able to cover the costs of homeowners insurance and property tax. The goal is to prevent future defaults. Reverse mortgages are obtained by borrowers over 62, and allow them to convert the equity in their homes into cash, which is used to live on. The loan is due, with interest, at the time the owners die, move, sell the home, or fail to pay homeowners’ insurance or property taxes.
Home values have declined in most markets; buying cheaper than renting in many places. According to a study by the Wall Street Journal it is cheaper to buy rather than rent a home in 12 major metropolitan markets. Home values also have declined in all but 5 markets. Low mortgage rates and timing make this a great time to buy for many buyers, and prices are predicted to continue to decline, mostly due to distressed sales. To read more on this study click here.
Monday, October 24th, 2011
There has been plenty of recent housing news that could effect the value of your home, so here are some of the latest updates:
Bill to allow visas to foreign home buyers. Congress is considering a bill that would allow foreign homebuyers to purchase residential property in the U.S., in an effort to stimulate the housing market. Buyers would need to spend at least $500,000 to obtain the visas, and would be allowed to split the money and purchase more than one home, as long as one property was at least $250,000. The buyers resident visa would be in place for as long as the buyer owned the home, and the buyers will have to live in their U.S. home for at least six months out of the year.
Mortgage rates may be lowered. The Federal Reserve is considering lowering the mortgage rates again, as the current low rates do not seem to be stimulating housing and the economy. They plan to purchase more mortgage backed securities, with the goal that banks will be able to help homeowners with refinancing and stimulate purchasing, without causing inflation. Since most of the problems with refinancing involve problems with fees or restrictions, will this really help? This could create more mortgage rate risk for the Fed, and realistically how many people will it help? It certainly won’t do anything for the millions of underwater homeowners. It seems to me this is digging a deeper grave, but I am not a mortgage expert so I will leave this to those who are, but my gut feeling says this is not the best solution.
Next generation of homeowners have little confidence in housing. A new study released by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston has found that the younger generation is less willing to purchase homes. Older respondents seemed to be more confident about homeownership after large declines, while younger participants felt opposite. Older respondents saw the drop in the market as cyclical, with the expectation of recovery, whereas their younger peers view the current situation as more permanent. Could this have an effect on housing in the long term?
Study says bank owned property sales may not peak until 2013. The latest study claims that we will see a lot more foreclosures, and therefore many more bank owned homes, until 2013. Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts claim that although we will not see price drops as steep as those of 2008, we could see a 10% increase in these REO (bank-owned) properties from 2012 to 2013. For more details of the study click here.
State court voids home sale…could this happen across the country? A Massachusetts state court recently ruled that a home recently sold post-foreclosure was improperly sold, as the lender did not hold the title. The sale was found to be void. So what happens to the new owners? Certainly there will be a big lawsuit against the title companies. But if this becomes the standard who is going to want to purchase a post-foreclosure home? Home buyers rely on title companies to convey clear title…so isn’t this punishing the purchasers and not just the bank? After all, if the title company certifies title is clear and escrow closes, how would a homeowner have any reason to know that there was a problem with the title? I’m not even going to speculate as to how badly this would fare for housing and the economy in general.
HUD homes for only $100 down: In the spirit of stimulating housing purchases, HUD has decided to offer buyers the chance to purchase a HUD REO (lender owned home) for only $100 down…yes, you read that right, one hundred dollars. Of course there are restrictions: the home must be a HUD home (a home that is the result of a foreclosure on a FHA home loan), the sale must be for list price, FHA guidelines apply (you have to qualify for a loan), and the state of your purchase must be one that is listed. To find out more search the internet for HUD’s $100 downpayment program orvisit their site.
Monday, September 26th, 2011
The distressed property market continues to be a big part of our real estate market, and there is a lot going on as of late. Here are some of the highlights:
First time homebuyers getting tired of short sales: A survey conducted by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance revealed that first time buyers have had enough with short sales. This segment of buyers purchased around 40% of short sales in August, compared to 54% of all short sales purchased in November of 2009. Some of the reasons sited for this drop in short sale purchases are frustration with timelines to get the home through escrow, paperwork glitches and appraisal issues, and overall dissatisfaction with short sale lenders. Short sales are still seen as good bargains by many buyers, as they typically sell for 27% less than similar traditional sale homes, making them a great deal for many first time and repeat home buyers who do not have to move immediately.
Florida may change to a non-judicial foreclosure state. The state of Florida, one with a large number of foreclosures, is heeding the cry of many homeowners and buyers by contemplating switching to a non-judicial foreclosure state. Currently a judicial foreclosure state – which means that all foreclosures must go through the court system to be finalized (and there is a huge backlog) – Florida’s foreclosures take longer than those in non-judicial states, up to three times as long by some estimates. Some lawmakers are afraid that these lags will cause lenders not to lend in the state, and that the current system stagnates the market and leads to neighborhood blight. The court system, as we know, can be very slow, so I think this is a good idea, although some lawmakers are opposed to a change with the status quo.
State attorneys general still not close to agreement in robo-signing scandal: Yes, it pains me to report that once again, there is no final decision in the robo-signing scandal. Lenders and attorneys general cannot seem to come up with a punishment for the lenders that makes all happy. Really? Whose money is being used for these attorneys general to meet ad nauseum and figure this out? I frankly think it ridiculous. Some AGs are saying that the banks should not be held liable for things that have not been investigated yet (what?), and that the liability should be placed on Wall Street and not so much on the lenders. Come on people – accept the blame and move on. The committee has stated that it the lenders will not be released from all civil liability…the saga continues.
Fixing the foreclosure mess may take more than a year. The latest statistics on fixing the foreclosure nightmare are that it may take more than a year, according to one story in HousingWire.com. Not a big surprise to many folks, and much of the long fix is due to the robo-signing fiasco. Over 4.5 million files must be examined for signs of improper foreclosure procedures, and new plans put in place to prevent such incidences from occurring in the future.
Some interesting numbers: 31% of all home purchases in California in August were short sales. In San Diego county alone, there are currently over 2500 short sales on the market today, with 1098 pending and over 3000 awaiting lender approval (contingent status). In the last six months in the county there have been 3412 short sales that closed escrow, with an average market time of 149 days. The point is that short sales are still very much a part of our current market, and I don’t think that will change any time soon.