Real Estate Purchases are Slowing Down

It is usually typical for the real estate market to slow as summer winds down, but many people ask me if I think the market will continue on it’s current path – rising prices and lack of inventory. This subject is discussed on a daily basis in the media by real estate agents, economists and buyers and sellers. I read a lot of it – from those claiming that the market will continue on it’s path, others predicting a bubble, and all sorts or in-between predictions. So how is one to know where the market it really heading?

First of all, no two markets are the same. So while right now in Los Angeles there are still bidding wars going on in some neighborhoods, here in San Diego it really varies as to price, neighborhood and type of property. Investors are still out there trying to pick up good deals, especially in the attached market under $600,000 and with 2-4 unit properties. Many 2-4 unit properties that were sitting for a long time are suddenly entertaining multiple offers.

Attached homes – Townhomes and condos are still “hot” here in San Diego County, especially those in nice areas close to highways, beaches and shopping/dining/transportation. Those priced under $600,000 still seem to be going fast. For example, in Carlsbad (North Coastal San Diego), in the month of July the average market time for sold condos and townhomes was 32 days, with  39 of these properties in escrow now. There are currently 48 active condos/townhomes listed on the market in Carlsbad that are priced under $600,000. 9 condos/townhomes sold in July with an average market time of 32 days. The average sold price was $428,533.

Detached Homes – There are currently 78 detached homes for sale in Carlsbad that are priced under $1 million. 57 homes went pending in July with an average market time of 22 days and an average list price of $842,000. Only 5 homes under $1 million sold in Carlsbad in July, with an average market time of 16 days and an average sales price of $802,000. Of the active listings, average market time so far is 37 days, with 19 of those properties having been on the market less than 10 days. Of course, this “detached homes” field includes all 4 zip codes in Carlsbad and multiple types of detached homes – varying with location, age and upgrades/amenities.

Homes located in certain neighborhoods seem to sell much faster. For example, the Mar Brisa neighborhood of Southwest Carlsbad (with the exception of one listing that has not sold for over 60 days and has dropped price several times) tends to sell very quickly, oftentimes in days or even before hitting the MLS. So location is a big factor, and many buyers are willing to pay over asking price to get into neighborhoods with little to no active listings.

As I always say, if you are in the market to purchase or sell residential or 2-4 unit income property, it is important to contact a skilled area agent who can provide you with a complete, detailed analysis of the specific area on which you are focused.

Crystal Ball Predictions – The question I am asked the most is “what will happen in the real estate market in the next year?” I usually chuckle and say that if I had a crystal ball I would be a very rich person! But I do believe that while prices will not shoot down drastically, that we are entering a “correction” period. I think we will see prices stabilize and the market very slowly start to revert to a buyer’s market. That means that prices will not likely rise much more, but of course there may be some highly desirable areas that do still see rises for a short time.

Many buyers are getting frustrated with the high prices and low inventory and are thus deciding to put property searches on hold, opting to rent until the market changes. While interest rates will likely rise that does not seem to be enough of an incentive for buyers to jump in when facing high prices and multiple offer situations. So in my opinion I believe we will see prices drop slightly, maybe more for properties that are not selling. Higher inventory levels would help keep demand filled and prices a bit more stable, so hopefully we will see that happen as we head into the later part of this year and the year to come.

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